WINE INVESTMENT REPORTS

Farthinghoe Fine Wine Investment Report - Q3 2025

Here you’ll find our latest Farthinghoe Fine Wine market and performance report, outlining returns, risks and key trends to help you see how the market is moving and what it could mean for your portfolio:

Q3 at a Glance

Fine wine prices rise for the first time in two years (+1.1% Liv-ex 100), with top Bordeaux showing signs of recovery and the US and Italy remaining steady.

Market sentiment is improving and liquidity is returning, although UK fiscal risks persist and Asia is still soft.

The outlook is one of cautious optimism heading into Q4.

As Liv-ex’s Justin Gibbs notes, ‘Liquidity is returning faster than expected in key Bordeaux names.’

Executive Summary

The third quarter of 2025 marked the first clear signs of renewed confidence in the fine wine market after more than two years of subdued trading. Across all the major Liv-ex indices, prices nudged higher in September: the Liv-ex 100 rose 1.1% to 312.7; the broader Liv-ex 1000 gained 0.4%; and the Fine Wine 50 (tracking the most collectible Bordeaux First Growths) rose 0.7%. These are modest gains, but significant in tone: the market appears to be finding its feet again. Volumes are up, bid-offer spreads have tightened, and trade breadth is improving. This is a measured recovery, not a surge, suggesting that collectors and investors alike are once again prepared to commit to carefully chosen wines.

Our conversations with major private clients and serious long-term buyers indicate a decisive shift in behaviour: many are now choosing to trade out of younger, less proven stock in favour of lower volumes of older, higher-quality, more mature wines. Their tastes, wallets and palates are pushing them to quality. This reinforces a key trend: demand for mature, ready-to-drink wines is genuinely consumption-led, not speculative.

The wider economic backdrop remains mixed. Soft disinflation across Asia contrasts with the UK’s more persistent inflation, while wider global growth is losing momentum. Importantly, the UK’s upcoming Autumn Budget on 26 November and evolving economic conditions in the United States and China add meaningful uncertainty – and opportunity – to how demand may unfold across fine wine markets. In this context, our view is that we are still in something of a selective accumulation phase. We favour mature vintages in trophy regions that offer proven track records and secondary market liquidity, while remaining cautious on younger releases and labels heavily reliant on Asian or Chinese demand.

Market Overview

Momentum across Q3 was steady rather than dramatic. The Liv-ex 100 closed September at 312.7 – its best level since early 2023 – while the Liv-ex 1000, encompassing Burgundy, Champagne, Italy and the New World, recorded one of its strongest monthly gains in 18 months. Trading activity has improved across the main categories, and the tone in the secondary market has lightened. Bordeaux’s most recognisable names led: the Bordeaux Legends 40 rose circa 1.8% in the month. Burgundy climbed approximately 0.8%, while the Rest of World index climbed around 0.6%, largely thanks to sustained enthusiasm for US icons such as Opus One. Sauternes was a slight outlier, slipping a little over 2%, though trading volumes in that category were its highest since spring 2024.

Opus One 2019 stood at £2,786, up from £2,600 earlier in the year; Sassicaia 2016 remained stable at £1,700 after cooling from £1,950+ in 2023; and Lafite 2018 was modestly firmer at £4,980, from £4,467 earlier this year.

These dynamics reflect a market where confidence is gradually returning. Large, liquid, well-known wines are once again beginning to trade more freely, while younger vintages and niche labels remain under pressure. For investors, the key message is that opportunities are emerging, but they require care, discipline and patience.

UK Budget and Fiscal Uncertainty

The upcoming UK Autumn Budget, scheduled for 26 November 2025, poses meaningful uncertainty for fine wine demand from UK-based collectors and investors. The government is operating under considerable fiscal pressure; borrowing costs are at a 27-year high, and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to downgrade productivity forecasts, increasing the fiscal gap by tens of billions of pounds. Speculation is strong that stealth tax rises are under consideration – on capital gains, inheritance tax, property taxes, possible threshold freezes and most recently, income tax itself – as well as constrained public spending. The Budget timing matters. With such announcements in late November, there may be a “wait-and-see” sentiment among UK buyers until detail is clear, potentially delaying transactions. Conversely, any positive surprises – tax relief, liquidity injections or confidence-boosting measures – could spur buying in the short term. Hence, UK risk remains elevated and any bullish case for UK demand should be tempered by this fiscal backdrop.

China

China’s economic outlook continues to weigh on fine wine markets, especially in regions reliant on Asian collectors. Growth in 2025 is forecast to be modest and is hindered by a still-weak property sector, contracting credit demand and deflation risk. For example, fixed-asset investment continues to slow, and retail-sales growth remains anaemic despite government stimulus. Although Beijing has introduced counter-cyclical stimulus and structural reforms, the pace of recovery is gradual and dependent on broader global demand, commodity cycles and credit market stability. For the fine wine market, this means that Asian demand (especially mainland China) remains uncertain. Collectors in China are cautious, and any recovery in wine demand is likely to be incremental unless confidence in the broader economy rebounds. That said, stronger buyers in Hong Kong and Singapore remain more liquid but weak mainland Chinese demand remains a key watchpoint.

United States

The United States economy remains resilient, avoiding a sharp downturn while facing its own set of headwinds. Growth is projected at around 2.0% in 2025 and about 2.1% in 2026. Inflation remains sticky, and recent tariff policy shifts are beginning to feed into cost pressures for imported goods, including fine wines.

The 2025 trade measures introducing a 10% baseline tariff on foreign wine imports (rising to 20–30% for key producing nations such as France, Italy and Spain) has slowed sales and softened overall volumes of European imports. Yet there is a growing sense that with tariffs now defined and priced into the market, the period of paralysis that followed earlier uncertainty is easing. Importers and collectors can once again plan with greater confidence. Certainty – even when unfavourable – provides a framework for decision-making, and in this sense the US market may now begin to move forward again.

Regional Insights

Bordeaux

Bordeaux reasserted itself this quarter, leading market gains. Mature Right Bank icons such as Pétrus and Le Pin have recovered from their multi-year lows, while classic Left Bank First Growths have seen steadier bidding. Collectors are favouring provenance, maturity and scarcity – qualities that Bordeaux continues to deliver.

Mature cases of solid wines such as Lynch Bages 1990 or Leoville Poyferre 1990 look great value in the current market, and demand here remains underpinned by consumption.

Burgundy

Burgundy remains a study in contrasts. The region’s index was up 0.8%, but movement beneath the surface is uneven. Established domaines and proven vintages continue to attract reliable demand, while more speculative labels remain subdued. For those willing to take a patient, selective approach, Burgundy still offers some of the most compelling long-term opportunities in fine wine.

Within Burgundy, the whites from top domaines like Raveneau or Ramonet look attractively priced right now; compared to the reds, there is naturally more consumption with them tending to drink earlier, meaning demand here is underpinned by consumption.

Champagne

After a strong first half of the year, Champagne paused slightly in September. Nonetheless, demand for fine vintage cuvées and limited releases from major houses remains strong. Champagne’s unique ability to bridge collectability and enjoyment ensures continued resilience.

Magnums from Cristal look to be a good opportunity right now, trading at multi-year lows and underpinned by strong brand reputation and consumption.

Italy & Rest of the World

The Italian market remains well supported, with consistent global interest in Super Tuscans and the top Piedmont producers. Although monthly movements were modest, underlying demand is healthy. In the wider world, the United States continues to shine. Cult California labels have become the market’s quiet performers, trading actively and providing useful diversification for portfolios previously concentrated in Europe.

Portfolio Positioning

The most effective strategies in the current market are those that prioritise quality, maturity and liquidity. Established producers with long trading histories are once again finding their equilibrium. Older Bordeaux vintages – 1982, 1989, 1990 – remain particularly attractive, balancing availability with quality.

Selective Burgundy remains very attractive, though entry points should be approached with care. In Champagne, Grandes Marques and prestige cuvées are continuing to reward patient accumulation.

Younger, less proven wines and labels dependent on speculative Asian demand continue to lag. For long-term investors, however, this phase of consolidation provides opportunities to build portfolios of exceptional wines at prices well below recent peaks.

Outlook

As we look toward the final quarter of the year, the outlook for fine wine feels more constructive than it has for some time. Economic headwinds persist, but sentiment has improved, trade activity is healthier, and valuations are beginning to look appealing once more.

We expect the market to continue to edge higher over the coming months, supported by better liquidity, improving sentiment and the enduring appeal of tangible, culturally rich assets.

Trends to Watch in Q4

Reawakening interest in mature Right Bank vintages, US tariff shifts reshaping collector behaviour, Burgundy price stability hinting at a possible floor, and Champagne repricing creating attractive entry points.